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AMARIN CORP PLC\UK (AMRN)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q2 2025 delivered a clean top-line beat driven by Recordati upfront revenue: total net revenue $72.7m vs $67.5m YoY (+8%) and well above S&P consensus $53.8m*, offset by a GAAP net loss $(14.1)m (−$0.03 per Ordinary Share) due to $22.8m restructuring; non‑GAAP EPS $0.04 per Ordinary Share (or $0.87 per ADS) . Results versus consensus: revenue $72.7m vs $53.8m*, EPS $0.87* vs $(0.25)* (ADS basis)*.
  • Strategic pivot: exclusive long‑term licensing and supply deal with Recordati to commercialize VAZKEPA across 59 European countries; global restructuring expected to reduce OpEx by ~$70m over the next 12 months .
  • U.S. remained stable operationally but under pricing pressure: U.S. net product revenue fell 17% YoY to $36.5m; market share ~43% at quarter end; a large U.S. payer returned Vascepa to exclusive status July 1, lifting share to ~50% in July (near‑term support to volumes) .
  • Cash and balance sheet remained strong at $298.7m, with no debt; management emphasizes path to positive free cash flow as restructuring savings phase in and European royalties ramp .
  • Stock reaction catalysts: (1) size and pacing of European royalty ramp with Recordati; (2) visibility on OpEx run‑rate realization; (3) U.S. payer exclusivity durability and any decision/timing on authorized generic; (4) updates on strategic alternatives with Barclays .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Recordati partnership accelerates Europe and supports pivot to asset‑light model; transition largely completed by end of 2025; expected ~$70m OpEx savings next 12 months . Quote: “significant steps to increase value for shareholders” .
  • Revenue diversification improved: Europe revenue +85% YoY ($6.6m) and RoW revenue up significantly ($3.5m vs $0.2m), while licensing and royalties rose 31% to $26.1m on the Recordati upfront and stronger partner sales .
  • U.S. commercial execution resilient: retained all major exclusive accounts through Q2; market share stable at ~43%, with July share ~50% after a national payer returned to exclusivity (supports near‑term volume) . CFO: “market share increase to approximately 50% in July… likely due to this change” .

What Went Wrong

  • U.S. net product revenue fell 17% YoY to $36.5m on ongoing generic pricing pressure; management still expects YoY U.S. revenue declines to continue .
  • GAAP profitability impacted by restructuring: $22.8m charges tied to reorganization drove GAAP net loss $(14.1)m despite revenue beat (non‑GAAP profitability positive) .
  • Operating loss widened YoY: Operating loss $(16.0)m vs $(0.5)m YoY despite gross margin expansion to 52% (higher OpEx with restructuring; underlying OpEx ex‑restructuring flat YoY) .

Financial Results

Consolidated Performance (Actuals)

MetricQ2 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025
Total Net Revenue ($m)$67.5 $42.0 $72.7
Gross Margin ($m)$42.8 $25.1 $50.4
Gross Margin (%)48.0% 59.8% (25.130/42.017) 52.0%
Operating (Loss) Income ($m)$(0.5) $(16.8) $(16.0)
GAAP EPS (Ordinary Share)$0.00 $(0.04) $(0.03)
Non‑GAAP EPS (Ordinary Share)$0.01 $(0.02) $0.04
Cash & Investments ($m)—$281.8 $298.7

Notes:

  • Q2 2025 non‑GAAP excludes stock‑based comp, restructuring and one‑time items; non‑GAAP EPS per ADS was $0.87 (20× Ordinary Share) .
  • Q2 gross margin expanded YoY to 52% on revenue mix; Q1 GM% shown for comparability (derived from reported figures) .

Revenue Mix (Q2 2025 vs Q2 2024)

Revenue ($m)Q2 2024Q2 2025
U.S. Net Product$43.8 $36.5
Europe Net Product$3.5 $6.6
Rest‑of‑World Net Product$0.2 $3.5
Total Net Product$47.5 $46.6
Licensing & Royalties$20.0 $26.1
Total Net Revenue$67.5 $72.7

Drivers:

  • YoY total net revenue +8% primarily from recognition of Recordati upfront and higher royalties; net product −2% as U.S. declines offset by Europe/RoW growth .

Operating Expense Detail (Q2 2025 vs Q2 2024)

OpEx ($m)Q2 2024Q2 2025
COGS$24.7 $22.4
SG&A$38.5 $38.7
R&D$4.7 $4.9
Restructuring—$22.8
  • OpEx ex‑restructuring essentially flat YoY ($43.6m vs $43.3m) despite revenue mix shift .

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Operating Expense SavingsNext 12 months—~$70m savings; majority from EU commercial reductions; savings to phase in roughly straight‑line over next 4 quarters, slightly less in the next quarter due to transition New
U.S. Net Price2H 2025—Expect net price “fairly comparable” to Q2 as long as exclusives are maintained New (qualitative)
U.S. Authorized Generic2025–2026Prepared to launch when optimalStill prepared; not optimal now given branded economics; timing TBD Maintained
Europe TransitionThrough YE 2025—Commercial transition to Recordati largely completed by end of 2025 New
Free Cash Flow TrajectoryMulti‑period—“Accelerated path” to positive free cash flow; timing not specified Reiterated directional

No explicit revenue/EPS/margin numeric guidance provided in the press release or call .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q4’24, Q1’25)Current Period (Q2’25)Trend
Europe commercializationQ4’24: Momentum; pricing & reimbursement wins incl. Italy national reimbursement; launches broaden; Austria reimbursement secured . Q1’25: 16% seq in‑market demand growth; 14/21 Italian regions secured (>85% eligible patients) .Recordati deal signed; in‑market demand +17% seq; +132% H1’25 vs H1’24; Spain/UK leading; transition to Recordati largely done by YE25 .Accelerating with partner leverage
U.S. pricing & shareQ3’24: +50% IPE share; U.S. cash generator despite generics . Q1’25: Retained exclusives; expect seasonality; YoY declines to continue .Q2 share ~43% at QE; large payer returned Vascepa to exclusive status July 1; share ~50% in July; net price stable if exclusives held .Near‑term volume support; pricing stable if access holds
Rest‑of‑World (RoW)Q4’24: China/Australia launches; partner growth in demand . Q1’25: Early commercialization; variability by shipment timing; regulatory progress in SE Asia for 2026 .Strong partner momentum: China +68% vs Q1; Australia +75% vs Q4’24 period; MENA +62%; South Korea approval (pricing/reimbursement next) .Building from small base; variable quarterly
Cost structureQ4’24: Ongoing cost optimization . Q1’25: Continued OpEx discipline .Global restructuring ($22.8m charge) to drive ~$70m savings over next 12 months; cash discipline reiterated .Material step‑down in OpEx run‑rate ahead
Strategic alternativesQ1’25: Board focused on value creation; open to opportunities .Barclays retained; “nothing off the table”; no timeline assurances .Active evaluation; optionality

Management Commentary

  • CEO: “The strategic actions taken in the second quarter – our partnership with Recordati… and the associated global restructuring… are significant steps to increase value for shareholders.”
  • CFO: “We expect accelerated in-market demand in Europe and decreased operating expenses… in the short term, slowing the cash decline… We are now on an accelerated path to achieving positive free cash flow in the future.”
  • CEO on U.S. strategy: “We’re prepared to launch our authorized generic when optimal… Right now, it’s in our best interest to continue with the brand.”
  • CFO on Q2 revenue composition: “Increase… primarily reflecting the impact of the Recordati upfront payment… Europe and RoW growth almost entirely offset lower U.S. net selling price.”

Q&A Highlights

  • U.S. formulary/access and AG timing: Management maintained 2025 exclusives and gained a major payer’s exclusivity effective July 1; prepared to launch an AG if/when optimal; brand economics currently preferable .
  • Net price outlook: Expect net price “fairly comparable” to Q2 for the rest of 2025 assuming exclusives are maintained .
  • OpEx savings cadence: ~$70m savings to phase in roughly straight‑line over four quarters; slightly less visible in the immediate next quarter due to transition and restructuring accounting .
  • Europe KPIs and expectations: Too early to quantify 3–5 year penetration; Recordati’s primary care and cardiology reach expected to broaden beyond Amarin’s specialty‑focused approach; Amarin will report financial results and comment on in‑market demand as impact materializes .
  • Strategic alternatives: Evaluating options with Barclays; no timeline; no assurance a transaction will occur .

Estimates Context

  • Q2 2025 vs S&P Global consensus: Revenue $53.8m* vs actual $72.7m; EPS (Primary) −$0.25* (ADS basis) vs actual $0.87 (company non‑GAAP per ADS) / GAAP $(0.60) per ADS equivalent; EBITDA −$10.0m* vs positive on an adjusted basis* . The beat was driven mainly by recognition of the Recordati upfront and stronger royalties, while restructuring charges depressed GAAP results .
MetricConsensus*Actual
Revenue ($m)$53.8*$72.7
Primary EPS (ADS basis)$(0.25)*$0.87 (non‑GAAP per ADS)

Forward consensus (indicative):

  • Q3 2025: Revenue $43.1m*, EPS $(0.43); Q4 2025: Revenue $50.6m, EPS $(0.01). Limited estimate coverage (1–3 analysts) suggests low conviction and potential for estimate volatility.

*Values retrieved from S&P Global.

KPIs and Operating Metrics

KPIQ4 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025
U.S. IPE Market Share>50% —~43% at QE; ~50% in July with payer exclusivity
U.S. Volume q/q—Seasonally softer; declines typical in Q1 +7% sequential vs Q1
Europe In‑Market Demand q/q+19% in Q3’24 +16% sequential +17% sequential
Europe H1 Demand YoY——+132% H1’25 vs H1’24
Cash & Investments ($m)$305.7 $281.8 $298.7

Guidance Changes (Detail)

See the table above. Notably:

  • OpEx savings: ~$70m run‑rate benefit targeted over 12 months; expect visible declines in OpEx net of restructuring as transition completes .
  • U.S. net pricing: Stable near‑term if exclusivity maintained; monitor 2026 payer changes .
  • Europe: Recordati transition by YE25, expected to accelerate breadth and pace of adoption .

Why Results Diverged from Estimates

  • Revenue beat: Recognition of Recordati upfront payment within licensing & royalties and broader partner momentum in Europe/RoW lifted revenue above consensus .
  • EPS/EBITDA upside: Non‑GAAP profitability benefited from excluding restructuring and one‑time fees; GAAP loss reflects $22.8m restructuring charge .
  • U.S. pressures persisted (lower net price), but Europe and RoW growth plus licensing more than offset on the top line .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Partnership pivot de‑risks Europe commercialization and accelerates royalty model; watch for early Recordati execution signals and royalty disclosures as transition completes by YE25 .
  • Cost structure reset (~$70m savings) supports an accelerated path to positive free cash flow; monitor OpEx ex‑restructuring run‑rate over the next four quarters .
  • U.S. near‑term volume supported by payer exclusivity; net price stable if access holds; AG remains a tactical lever if economics shift .
  • Cash of ~$299m and no debt provide runway to execute and evaluate strategic alternatives; any announced transaction could be a major catalyst .
  • Estimate volatility likely given low coverage; revenue mix changes (licensing vs product) may continue to skew headline beats/misses; focus on cash, OpEx trajectory, and royalty scale‑up*.

*Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Additional Data & Cross‑Checks

  • Non‑GAAP reconciliation for Q2 2025: GAAP net loss $(14.1)m + stock‑based comp $4.3m + licensing agreement fees $5.0m + restructuring $22.8m = non‑GAAP net income $18.0m; non‑GAAP EPS $0.04 per Ordinary Share; $0.87 per ADS .
  • Cash: $298.7m at quarter end; debt free .
  • Sequential move vs Q1 2025: Revenue up from $42.0m to $72.7m largely on Recordati upfront; operating loss similar $16.8m → $16.0m; GAAP loss per Ordinary Share improved from $(0.04) to $(0.03) .

All figures from company filings and the Q2 2025 press release and call unless marked with an asterisk (S&P Global). Citations: .